Feed wheat markets continue to disappoint

Prices for feed wheat fell by 1.3% in the latest round of trading, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).

UK November 2026 feed wheat future fell by £2.75/t (1.3%) to £209.75 for the trading period that ended on Friday, September 11.

Markets are currently “dashing expectations” that grain prices may respond positively to the impact of the drought conditions that impacted across Europe for the final three months of the 2025/2026 growing season, AHDB said.

Global grain markets ended last week lower after the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest monthly report on Friday.

Meanwhile, December 26 Paris wheat futures lost 2.1% over the week. Both Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures and Dec-26 Chicago maize futures fell 1.2%.

USDA report

Ahead of the report, speculative traders had bought heavily into the futures markets. But after the report, prices turned lower and contracts were sold to book profits from the earlier buys.

The USDA cut its forecast of the US 2026 maize crop by 5.4Mt to 401.3Mt due to the impact of hot weather this summer on yields.

But the resulting fall in 2026/2027 US maize stocks was less than the market had expected.

An unexpected increase in the forecast of global wheat stocks at the end of 2026/2027 from August also led to prices declining.

Global wheat stocks at the end of this season are now forecast at 276.3 Mt, up 3.0 Mt from August’s report. This is largely due to increased crop estimates for Australia and Canada.

Earlier in the week, hopes that talks between Russia and Ukraine might be possible weighed on prices.

However, further air strikes on key infrastructure and data showing the ongoing disruption to Black Sea trade limited the price impact.

Oilseed futures prices also came under pressure over recent days after a surprise increase to the US soyabean crop estimate.

Prices were underpinned by the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and the Black Sea for most of the week.

Nearby Brent crude oil futures pushed above $100/barrel for the first time since May due to the Middle East conflict. The contract ended Friday at $104.61/barrel, up 8.7% Friday-Friday.

Another factor was China continuing to buy US soyabeans. Reuters estimated that China bought a further 1.0Mt last week.

However, on Friday, the USDA made a surprise increase to its US soyabean crop estimate and cut US stocks by less than expected.

This triggered selling and profit-taking by speculative traders, which in turn added to the price declines.

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