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UK house prices fall for first time in nearly three years, says Lloyds

The rise in mortgage rates could cool demand in the UK housing market, where ( as reported earlier) prices fell last month.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, says:

“We have seen a spring slump rather than a seasonal bounce this year as prices and transactions came under pressure from higher mortgage costs and an ever-present concern around which taxes the government may raise next.

Falling house prices are a natural consequence of that and whether we see a seasonal autumn bounce will depend on the level of any pre-Budget speculation and how the unpredictable conflict in the Middle East unfolds and impacts on UK inflation expectations.”

The average 2-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.63%. This is up from 5.60% the previous working day.

The average 5-year fixed residential mortgage rate today is 5.68%. This is up from 5.64% the previous working day.

“The pricing margins among major lenders are under pressure due to renewed volatility in the swap rate market, so it is somewhat inevitable for them to adjust rates. Major lenders, which include HSBC and NatWest, have increased rates since the start of September. The recent uplift in swap rates has started to filter into the pricing of fixed rate mortgages, with more moves expected in the coming days. Swap rates are much higher than they were a month ago and are a key influence on how lenders price their fixed-rate mortgages. Lenders look at margins very carefully, so it would be unwise to price their deals too low, if the expectations are for interest rates to rise, even if over the short-term.

“Mortgage rates are rising due to the escalating military conflict between the US and Iran, reigniting inflationary fears. The UK 10-year gilt yield has also risen further above 5% to an 18-year high recently due to a global bond sell-off, adding further pressure to the wholesale funding costs that underpin fixed mortgage pricing. However, the hit to the mortgage market over recent days pales in comparison to when the conflict in the Middle East began around six months ago, when many lenders pulled fixed rate deals. While this alone might still not reassure some borrowers, it is worth noting that the pressure on swap rates over the past six months has not been caused by UK fiscal policy, which is why withdrawals and rate hikes are nowhere near the scale experienced in the aftermath of the ‘mini-Budget’ in 2022.

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