Winning after the final whistle: Is the World Cup really worth only 1% of annual operator revenue?

With the World Cup nearing its climax in the US, Mexico and Canada, operators will soon assess whether the tournament has delivered on its commercial promise. Is the real value of major tournaments in what they deliver after the final whistle?

Ahead of the tournament’s kick-off, investment bank Macquarie estimated global wagers could reach $50 billion. But during Entain’s FY’25 earnings call in March comments from CEO Stella David’s on how much annual yield the operator actually makes from the tournament raised the question of just how much value such a huge sporting event provides.

“It’s not as big a thing as you might think,” David told analysts, in response to a question on how much annual revenue the tournament would make for Entain. “I mean, it’s probably worth about 1% or something like that across the year is really where we would anticipate that to be as an upside. It’s bigger than the Euros, but it’s not as dramatic as you would think.”

While the figure seems low, Ed Birkin, managing director of H2 Gambling Capital, believes major sporting events serve more as a customer acquisition tool rather than a key driver of significant incremental revenue. “Overall in markets that report it, [the World Cup is] accounting for around 7% of sports turnover,” Birkin tells iGB. “However, it really depends on the outcomes of games in terms of what is going to be done.

“If you’re only making 1% from the World Cup, then it would be disappointing. However, that also depends on your split. The ones who are more sports-focused will see a lot bigger benefit. Entain, they’ve got the UK business, although their gaming brands are still bigger.”

Results on the pitch matter

This year, the World Cup was expanded to include 48 teams. While this means over 60% more matches, it also led to a significant number of the group-stage matches involving footballing powerhouses against what could be perceived as minnows on the world stage, with several teams qualifying for the first time.

As Birkin references, how operators have performed could be strongly linked to whether the aforementioned minnows have upset some of the favourites. During the group stages, first-time qualifiers Cape Verde held Spain to a draw before also achieving a 2-2 result with Uruguay, while Brazil, Germany, Portugal, England and the Netherlands all dropped points.

According to Chad Beynon, managing director and senior gaming, lodging & theatres analyst at Macquarie Group, what has happened on the pitch will prove “crucial” in determining whether operators have capitalised on the expanded World Cup. “If England makes it to the final, then you’re going to see those numbers completely smash what Entain had been saying,” Beynon says.

“We do need these big teams to make it to the next stage, right? If England, France, Argentina were upset by a smaller market, a smaller GDP country, I think that would certainly hurt in the next stage.”

Does long-term value lie in casino cross-sell?

Beynon and Birkin’s view echo those of Super Group CEO Neal Menashe, who prior to the tournament said its early rounds could be “hairy” due to the mismatches. But for Super Group the real value in the World Cup lies in what it could cross-sell from sports betting into casino, which he claimed sits at around 60%-70%.

Beynon agrees with this view, adding: “In terms of iGaming cross-sell, I think that is the ultimate goal. I mean, we’ve always thought about poker and sports betting as the top of funnel, and then iGaming as the money printer.

“I just don’t know if you’re going to see those same cross-sell rates [with] new customers, because they haven’t participated in iGaming or else they would have an account. So I would say it’s a little bit lower than a new market opening up. But I do think it’ll still be pretty strong.”

Birkin has reservations over whether operators will truly be able to cross-sell into casino as much as they forecast, especially in the US where iGaming expansion has stalled.