Global grain prices watching Black Sea developments and US elections

Grain prices fell last week on hopes for an increase in Russian exports, US maize harvest progress and selling by speculative traders.

However, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), price declines paused later in the week.

This followed attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, higher crude oil prices, and signs of stronger international demand.

For the week ending Friday, October 30, May-2027 UK feed wheat futures fell by £5.50/t or 2.6% to £202.50/t.

Meanwhile, the November-2026 UK feed wheat futures contract fell £1.00/t or £0.5% last week to £192.75/t.

May-2027 Paris wheat futures fell 2.3%, with Chicago wheat futures down 3.1% and Chicago maize down 2.1%.

While they remain below recent years, Russian grain exports have increased through the Baltic ports recently, AHDB said.

The previous week’s peace talks also increased optimism for Black Sea shipments.

Russia is also starting some exports from the Arctic port of Murmansk.

Meanwhile, Jordan, Tunisia and South Korea all bought grain or issued tenders last week.

US weekly net export sales for wheat also came in at 850Kt, above expectations of 200-500Kt.

The US maize harvest reached 70% complete by 25 October. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) also reported over three-quarters of the 2027 winter wheat area sown.

Significantly, the EU Commission has cut its estimate of the bloc’s maize crop by another 1.3Mt to 47.0Mt due to the drought.

According to AHDB, short-term market attention is likely to remain on geopolitical factors.

This will include how Russian grain ships fare in the Black Sea and tomorrow’s US mid-term elections. Any changes to the strength of the US dollar will impact grain and oilseed prices globally.

Where the southern hemisphere is concerned, the wheat harvest is progressing in Australia and is now underway in Argentina.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports positive early wheat yields in Argentina, and that maize planting is going well.

Oilseed markets continue to remain volatile but broadly remained pressured over recent days.

Sustained high crude oil prices, currency and US harvest progress are the main drivers in this regard

The US soya bean harvest is now well advanced, which is likely to have added to the continued pressure across the week.

According to the latest USDA crop progress report, as of 25 October, the US soya bean harvest was 79% complete, up from 64% the previous week.

This was in line with trade expectations and slightly ahead of the five-year average of 77%.

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