What Banijay’s €32bn bet on a market that doesn’t exist reveals about gaming’s new value map

How do you build an omnichannel gambling business in a country that bans half the channels? Banijay´s answer arrived on 6 July. The French media group that owns Betclic  and last year swallowed Tipico , has agreed to  acquire Groupe JOA’s network of 33 regional casinos across France through its gaming arm. Completion is expected in the second half of this year pending regulatory approvals. Both sides talk enthusiastically of the “omnichannel opportunity”.

Yet France has no legal online casino, and H2 Gambling Capital data shows the amount staked on retail betting slipped slightly to €10.5 billion in 2025 from €11 billion the year before. So what, precisely, is Banijay paying for?

The answer, according to the industry analysts and deal advisors iGB has spoken to, is threefold: a resilient land-based cash machine today; a cheaper customer tomorrow; and a head start in what may be the biggest unregulated online casino market in Europe.

Underwriting an iGaming market that doesn’t exist

Starting with the upside. Ollie Woodward, deal advisory director at BDO, specialising in due diligence for the betting and gaming sector, says the deal’s valuation is “likely a balance of the two but undoubtedly there is long-term punt here on the potential for iCasino becoming regulated in France”. The omnichannel opportunity, he adds, is clear enough on its own terms, creating a customer ecosystem spanning online sports betting, gaming, retail gaming and hospitality.

Nigel Hinchliffe, managing director at Alvarez & Marsal’s transaction advisory group, puts it more directly: “It’s difficult to argue that the deal has to stand up based on land-based fundamentals alone or it would have happened long before now,” he says.

For him, Banijay is taking a calculated risk where “the upside of online casino liberalisation is significant while the downside is more limited”, with JOA continuing to “throw off cash to invest in Banijay’s higher growth European online operations” in the meantime. Should iGaming eventually be regulated in France, he expects the tax burden to be punitive – precisely when a full omnichannel offering, and the lower customer-acquisition costs it enables, becomes a key differentiator.

And should future online licences be attached to land-based operations, the transaction could come to look like “a very astute piece of dealmaking”.

That licensing model is not a fantasy of Banijay’s making. JOA’s chairman Laurent Lassiaz – who will stay on to run the business – told iGB in June  that iGaming is no threat to France’s land-based sector, but that licences tethered to casino operations would be “a huge new vertical for us”. “I’m the defender of the evolution from brick-and-mortar to click-and-mortar,” he said. JOA’s position, in other words, is not to block iGaming forever, but to own the keys when the door opens.

A broader European pattern

Christian Tirabassi, senior partner at Ficom Leisure, situates the deal within a broader European pattern. “The broader industry trend is the convergence of products and channels,” he says. The modern operator increasingly needs every product regulation permits, delivered through every relevant channel. Even with online casino prohibited, he argues, combining a strong digital operation with a leading land-based network improves customer acquisition, loyalty, CRM and data use – and, as marketing rules tighten, “having a physical footprint can become an increasingly valuable competitive advantage for online operators”.

As for iGaming liberalisation, Tirabassi is careful, noting any transaction should be underwritten without relying on regulatory change, and a future opening of the market is “a meaningful value creation opportunity rather than the core investment rationale”. But it is “widely recognised that a substantial portion of French online casino demand is currently being satisfied through offshore operators”. The black market is estimated at some €1.5 billion annually.

The most French o